Bird Flu: Don't Panic, Prepare!
Remember the panic over West Nile Virus?
Can you feel the Avian Flu tension building?
There needs to be a reality check. Perhaps there have been 40-100 worldwide human deaths, but nobody knows the total number of human Avian Flu infections. It is likely six or seven digits.
Like any flu outbreak, only the very sick seek medical assistance. The rest get better on their own.
Avian Flu is not Ebola! Its strain is very similar to this winter's seasonal influenza outbreak (which has also killed hundreds across the country, mostly older and susceptible folks). Many previous flu strains were originally tracked in other animals.
To summarize, nobody at HHS/CDC is talking Armageddon. We need to protect those at greatest risk. The rest of us will just deal with it.
Related Topics: Bird Flu FAQ, Flu Pandemic Guide: Stock Up on Basics
- Less than 1:100 infected stings caused infections
- Less than 1:100 infected people got sick
- Less than 1:100 who got sick went to the hospital
- Less than 1:100 hospitalized with WNV died from the disease!
Can you feel the Avian Flu tension building?
There needs to be a reality check. Perhaps there have been 40-100 worldwide human deaths, but nobody knows the total number of human Avian Flu infections. It is likely six or seven digits.
Like any flu outbreak, only the very sick seek medical assistance. The rest get better on their own.
Avian Flu is not Ebola! Its strain is very similar to this winter's seasonal influenza outbreak (which has also killed hundreds across the country, mostly older and susceptible folks). Many previous flu strains were originally tracked in other animals.
To summarize, nobody at HHS/CDC is talking Armageddon. We need to protect those at greatest risk. The rest of us will just deal with it.
Related Topics: Bird Flu FAQ, Flu Pandemic Guide: Stock Up on Basics
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16 Comments:
My baby son and I had the Hong Kong flu in 1969. It is the same strain as the new bird flu.
It was not a bed of roses but we went through it the same as if it were any other flu. (Maybe a little worse) My son was a chubby little baby less than a year old. He lost 5 pounds. He lay in his crib lifeless for days. I called the doctor every day and he said try to get liquids in him and there is nothing else we can do.
It is likely six or seven digits.
Where are you getting that information from?
Also I can't find any corroboration that the Hong Kong flu in 1969 was the same strain as H5N1. I don't think that it the truth.
To summarize, nobody at HHS/CDC is talking Armageddon. We need to protect those at greatest risk. The rest of us will just deal with it.
The more I think about this post, the more irresponsible I think it is. Have you read the report from the White House? It predicts in the worst case scenario between 200,000 and 2 million dead. That isn't Armageddon (nice straw man by the way) but it is something we should be planning for now and not brushing off with "the rest of us will just deal with it." Dealing with it could mean watching someone you love die because the hospital doesn't have a vent for him/her. Dealing with it could mean trying to figure out where to get your insulin from because there isn't any left in the pharmacies and the federal gov't isn't shipping any in. Dealing with it could mean figuring out how your kid is going to finish the academic year with the schools closed.
If anyone reading this is interested in a blog that takes the threat of a panflu seriously without panicking, then check out EffectMeasure.blogspot.com. It's the best flu site on the web.
Looking out for just the infants and elderly won't do it if this flu turns out to be an autoimmune type like the 1918 bird flu was.
My uncle, a healthy 12 year old, died in that flu. My mother, an infant, survived. Apparently that was the case for many -- the healthiest often suffered the most casualties since their autoimmune systems were strongest. I recall that most of the dead in this latest version are young people. Just a thought.
Yea... The White House...Weapons of Mass Distruction anyone??
Just a thought - how many ways are there to distract the public from other matters? One really good way is to give the public something else to worry about.
Living in an area that goes through West Nile every year and SARS 2x, I think the comment Don't Panic, Prepare is valid.
Take precautions as individuals, support the efforts of your local hospitals and emergency response teams but by no means do we need to barricade ourselves.
To explain: Bird Flu attacks the ciliated cells in the trachea, brochioles, and lungs, causing respiratory distress. Cilia are small hair-like projections that cover the surface of the cells that make up the lining of these organs. In birds, all of the cells lining their respiratory systems are ciliated, but in humans, only about half are, which explains why bird flu is so lethal to birds. The fear is that the virus will mutate into a form that makes no distinction between ciliated and non-ciliated cells in the respiratory tract. Also, if the virus doesn't mutate, but someone contracts the regular flu in addition to bird flu, this could be lethal. Viruses typically gain entry to the body through the ears, eyes, nose, and mouth, as well as open wounds. The key is preventing entry through use of surgical masks and eye wear, and once it gains entry, to prevent attachment, which is what anti-bodies in the blood stream do. A virus CAN NOT cause disease if it does not attach to the bodie's regular cells. A virus lands on a cell, and then inject's it's own DNA in place of that cell's DNA, so that when the cell divides and replicates (mitosis), it creates new viruses which attack more cells, and the cycle continues. The reason it will be difficult to stop is because once it mutates to human form, like AIDS, it will likely mutate so fast that finding an effective vaccine will be difficult. Thank You for your time.
What would be really scary is if terrorists got their hands on a virulent form of flu virus, and mutated it with something else, which I like to call ARCS. Acute Respiratory Collapse Syndrome. This would make SARS look like a cold. And given the zealous nature of these fanatics, I wouldn't put it past them to infect themselves and spread it by human-human contact in elavators, cabs, planes, etc. so that they can becaome martyrs and go see Allah and obtain their "reward." For those of you that are not Muslim extremeists, I respect your right to practice your faith, and applaud you for doing so. However, like most religions, there are a few that are perverting your doctrine for their own use, which is wrong, regardless of religious belief.
yes we need to pay attention to what comes out of Washington!! By the way isn't Donald one of the major shareholders in the company that makes Tamiflu
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It is my understanding that the avian flu is a gut flu in the wild birds that carry it. I suspect that as long as they get the bug only in the digestive tract they develope an immunity that protects them from getting it in their respiratory tract, which would probably kill them also, as wild bird have more respiratory area than many animals as it helps them get enough oxygen as they fly long distances. The avenue of infection, to me is something that needs to be evaluated more as it may give a way to vacinnate people better and with less risk and perhaps discomfort even. I suspect about everyone who reads this will have aready heard of probiotics being given a coating that lets the beneficial bacteria loose in the proper part of the digestive tract. Even a type of suppository may be viable if that generates the proper immune response.
eRobin - Check the facts - every Hong Kong flu site on the internet will tell you that it is the H5N1
strain. I did talk with the CDC
regarding this.
Anonymous post at 5:38 scenario sounds like the movie "12 Monkeys". Though I disprove of Hollywood melodrama, that's a scary scenario.
One says 5:38 and one says 5:33. I'm referring to the one where disease is spread by casual contact.
My Mother survived the 1918 Pandemic. Because of this, is it possible that her children received stronger immunities against such a pandemic in the future?
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