Is autism on the rise?
During the evaluation he makes little eye contact with me or with his parents,
The prevalence of autism
In the 1995 first edition of my book for pediatricians (Developmental and Behavioral Pediatrics: A Handbook for Primary Care), we said autism occurred in 1/1,000 children. In the latest, 2005 edition we say it occurs in about 1/300. Recent estimates have suggested it could as high as 1/165. Has the prevalence of autism really tripled (or more) in the past few decades? There is much debate among professionals on this question.
Some say no. They believe the apparent increase to be due to more awareness and understanding of autism among parents and professionals. Additionally, we are now diagnosing children with only mild symptoms (who would not have been diagnosed 20 years ago) as being on the "autism spectrum".
Others say yes: the increase has just been too great. (By the way, this is my view. When I started my clinic 20 years ago, I diagnosed perhaps 3-4 children per year as autistic. Now our Developmental Assessment Clinic sees 25 new cases per year and our recently-started Pediatric Autism Clinic sees well over 100.)
What triggers autism?
Since children's genes haven't changed, if autism is on the rise there must be something about the modern environment that triggers it in a susceptible child. What might that be?
It is the subject of a lot of ongoing research but, at this point, the simple and honest (and frustrating) answer is: nobody knows. Yet, despite any convincing scientific evidence, a whole cottage industry has arisen by folks who claim to know the "truth", whose emphatic certainty is untroubled by the lack of scientific proof.
Let's look at the hunch that the MMR immunization triggered autism. It made sense: many parents had the experience of their child's autism developing following a vaccination. They were (some still are) convinced one caused the other. (In fact, the fear of MMRs led to a mini-epidemic of measles in England after many worried parents decided not to immunize their children.)
But subsequent excellent studies have clearly shown this hypothesis to have been wrong and based on a coincidence (kids happen to get an MMR at the age when autism often emerges). We don't know what might trigger autism, but it's pretty clear it's not the MMR immunization.
Anyone can take a guess - educated or otherwise - about what causes autism and/or how to 'cure' it. Who knows, maybe someday one will turn out to be true. I certainly hope so! But beware the gurus who declare they have the answer and the solution, and who reject scientific proof as important to their claims.
An anti-scientific bias in the US
In some ways, this is a cautionary tale. For reasons I don't really understand, there is an anti-scientific bias among many parents in the U.S. which, I believe, can be damaging to children by leading to unproved and even potentially dangerous treatments, and an unfounded suspicion of what modern medicine has to offer.
It is fine to have a hunch about a possible cause or treatment of autism, as long as you label it as such and you are willing to put its validity to the test, and to admit you were wrong when valid scientific studies are negative. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Unfortunately, since we don't know what causes autism and we have no 'cure', many heartsick parents are susceptible to offbeat theories, even in the absence of objective scientific proof.
I'm optimistic and convinced that some day we will solve the riddle of autism and have much better treatments - perhaps even a cure. Until that happy day comes, I'm truly sorry to report there is no magic out there, that we can only do our best with what we currently know to be true.
In the meantime, we need to make sure that our fond desire for simple explanations and quick fixes doesn't play into the hands of bogus therapists who prey on loving and desperate parents' understandable willingness to try (and pay) almost anything to cure their autistic child.
Related Topics (Updated): Study: Childhood Rise in Autism Cases Real, Gene Interaction Linked to Autism Risk
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